::: 首頁   資訊與服務    研究成果  
研究成果

住宅部門溫室氣體減量調適措施與衝擊評估之研究

計畫主持人: 王安強
協同主持人: 黃瑞隆
執行單位:
執行期程:
GPN:
ISBN:
MOIS:
組別: 環境控制組
執行方式: 協同研究
關鍵詞: 住宅部門、溫室氣體預測、建築外殼節能、調適策略、國家自訂預期貢獻
參考文獻:

中文摘要


一、研究緣起

全球氣候變化及其相關環境問題引起了大眾對社會可持續發展的關注。近幾十年來,全球一致大力減少溫室氣體排放,其目的就在於減緩氣候變化的發生。藉由節能措施來減少能源消耗為減少溫室氣體排放的關鍵方法之一。在建築方面,推估臺灣住宅部門合理的排放(減碳)額度,並經由訂定法規來控制建築外殼的節能設計,為節約能源和減少溫室氣體排放作出重大貢獻。建築技術規則中提供了部位式和性能式二種路徑來指導新建建築物建築外殼節約能源設計。不管哪種路徑其規定的基準值,都是基於以過去的氣象資料TMY或者TMY3的能源模擬結果得來的。然而,新建築面對的是未來的氣候,而不是過去的氣候。因此,評估未來氣候下建築能耗的使用是極為重要且迫切的。

二、研究方法及過程

本研究參考科技部「氣候變遷調適科技整合研究計畫」(TaiCCAT) 提出的氣候變遷調適能力建構之六大步驟之前四步,以此為藍圖建立本計畫的研究流程。首先參考我國溫室氣體減量及管理法、能源管理法及「國家自定預期貢獻」 (INDC)架構及要求,訂定住宅部門的溫室氣體減量目標完成議題界定與步標設定;再者採用由下往上之推估法,建立用於預測未來住宅溫室氣體排放趨勢之模型,由社經因素如人口、家戶收入等為外部驅動因子,並考慮各個會影響住宅能源使用之最終用途,推估住宅部門的能源使用情形,由模擬之結果建立溫室氣體推估模型以預測未來氣候下的住宅部門排放趨勢。為了達到預期之減排目標,針對四個項目提出溫室氣體減量調適策略,依序為建築外殼熱性能改善、空調效率提升、設備效率提升與照明效率提升,並以兩組綜合調適策略作為說明,其中建築外殼熱性能之改善主要以建築技術規則為基準,以為未來政策擬定之參考,以臻節能減碳之目的。

三、重要發現

本研究所得之重要結論如下:

1.目前我國提出之溫室氣體減量推動方案方向,與各國在面對氣候變遷時所採取的措施大致相同,不外乎提升新建建築外殼設計基準值、強化建築節能法規、鼓勵或強制性使用高效率/低耗能的家電產品以落實最低容許耗用能源效率標準(MEPS)等作法。

2.因科學基礎減量目標在本質上與住宅部門的性質不符,本計畫參考 Taiwan 2050 Calculator 當中的住宅調適項目,評估其對於住宅部門溫室氣體減量的效果,其中包含提升住宅外殼熱性能、空調、家電、照明能效。

3.本計畫係針對住宅部門溫室氣體排放量模型進行比較,基於未來氣象年、不確定性分析,提出住宅部門能源消費分析及預測,建立溫室氣體排放基線,並分析相關減碳情境。在發電結構不改變的情境下,住宅部門的溫室氣體排放量將於2030年後達到3400萬公噸;若國家發電結構改變,則可有望控制在2500萬公噸,與前項情境相比,光以改變發電結構的方式就可減少900萬公噸的溫室氣體排放量。

4.國家發電結構是否改變,是國家自訂預期貢獻是否能達標的重要因素。若發電結構不變,採用極端努力的做法,在2030年距離國家目標仍有183萬公噸溫室氣體排放的缺口是無法達標的;然而若發電結構改變,採用輕度減緩策略,於2030年即可達到國家自訂預期貢獻的標準。

5.外殼熱性能、空調、家電、照明分別占了住宅電力消耗的6%、25%、43%、26%。以國家發電結構改變之情境下且採取輕度減緩策略,若建築外殼法規標準提升10%,逐年更新率達1%,將可減少約18%(26萬公噸)的溫室氣體排放量(以2017年外殼負荷量貢獻的溫室氣體排放為基準);依照2017年的排放基準為分母,空調、家電、照明的自己減量比例分別為3%(20萬公噸)、5%(62萬公噸)、5%(37萬公噸)。

四、主要建議事項

根據本研究成果發現,提出下列具體建議,分別從立即可行建議及中長期建議加以列舉如下: 

建議一

研擬住宅部門之減碳獎勵調適措施:立即可行之建議

由本計畫所得之結果可知,強制性的法規所規範的住宅外殼節能效果有限,其餘的溫室氣體貢獻量則落於空調、照明、家電設備上,其中多須以獎勵獲補助等措施來達到節能減碳之目的。故研擬適合本土的住宅部門減碳獎勵調適措施極為重要。

主辦機關:內政部建築研究所

協辦機關:國內各大學或研究機構

建議二

推廣節能家電與相關之節能獎勵:立即可行建議

無論是何種改善程度的調適策略,逐年更新率為達成減量效果的重要因素,須仰賴政府的推廣與民眾的配合才能達到一定的更新率;而空調系統、家電設備與照明燈具的效率提升則需依靠產品開發端的技術進步,倘若上述的用電設備能在源頭達成節能設計,對於住宅部門的溫室氣體減量將有莫大助益。

主辦機關:經濟部能源局

協辦機關:無



英文摘要


1.Introduction

Global warming and its related environmental issues have raised public concern about sustainable social development. In the past few decades, the world has consistently and vigorously reduced greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and its purpose is to mitigate the occurrence of climate change. One of the key ways to reduce GHG emissions by reducing energy consumption is the implementation of energy conservation measures. In terms of building construction, the reasonable emission (carbon reduction) quota of the residential sector in Taiwan is estimated, and the energy-saving design of the building envelope is controlled by regulations to make a significant contribution to energy conservation and greenhouse gas emission reduction. The Building Technical Regulations provide two types of paths to guide the energy saving design of the new building envelope, and the specified reference value is based on the energy simulation results of past meteorological data such as TMY or TMY3. However, the new building is facing the challenge from the future climate, instead of the climatic condition of the past. Therefore, it is extremely important and urgent to assess the use of building energy consumption in the future climate.

2.Method

This study refers to the first four steps of the six major ones of climate change adaptation program proposed by the Ministry of Science and Technology's (Taiwan integrated research program on Climate Change Adaptation Technology, TaiCCAT), using this as a blueprint to establish the research process of this project. First, with reference to the structure and requirement from the Greenhouse Gas Reduction Act, Energy Management Act and the Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC), the definition and step setting of the GHG reduction target for the residential sector is defined. The bottom-up method is integrated into a model for predicting the trend of future residential GHG emissions. Social factors including population and household income are served as external driving factors, and the final use of each residential energy source is considered. In order to achieve the expected emission reduction targets, the GHG reduction strategies encompassing four areas are proposed, which are to improve the thermal performance of the building envelope, to improve the air conditioning efficiency, to improve the equipment efficiency and to improve the lighting efficiency. Two comprehensive adjustment strategies are discussed in the study. Among them, the improvement of thermal performance of building envelopes is mainly based on the Building Technical Regulations, and it is intended to be a reference for future policies to save energy consumption and reduce carbon emission.

3.Significant findings

The following findings have been achieved in this research:

a)The currently direction of the greenhouse gas reduction promotion scheme proposed is about the same as those adopted by other countries facing with climate change. It includes upgrading the design value of new building envelope, strengthening building energy conservation regulations, encouraging or compulsory use of efficient/low-energy home appliances in accordance with the Minimum Allowance Energy Efficiency Standard (MEPS).

b)Since the science-based reduction target is intrinsically inconsistent with the nature of the residential sector, the study is based on the residential adaptation project built-in the Taiwan 2050 Calculator to assess its greenhouse gas reductions in the residential sector, including improving the thermal performance of the residential enclosure and air conditioning, home appliances, lighting energy efficiency.

c)The study compares the greenhouse gas emission models of the residential sector, based on the future meteorological year and uncertainty analysis, proposes the energy consumption analysis and forecast of the residential sector, establishes the greenhouse gas emission baseline, and analyzes the relevant carbon reduction scenarios. Under the situation where the power generation structure does not change, the greenhouse gas emissions of the residential sector will reach 34 million metric tons after 2030; if the national power generation structure changes, it can be controlled at 25 million metric tons, compared with the previous situation, the changing by power generation structure can reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 9 million metric tons.

d)Whether the national power generation structure changes is an important factor in whether the country's customized contribution can meet the goal. If the power generation structure remains unchanged, the use of extreme efforts will not reach the target of 1.83 million metric tons of greenhouse gas emissions from the INDC target in 2030; however, if the power generation structure changes, a mild mitigation strategy can be adopted in 2030, meeting the INDC target without additional effort.

e)Thermal performance, air conditioning, home appliances, and lighting account for 6%, 25%, 43%, and 26% of residential power consumption, respectively. In the context of changes in the national power generation structure and adopting a mild mitigation strategy, if the building envelope regulations are increased by 10% and the annual renewal rate is 1%, the greenhouse gas emissions will be reduced by approximately 18% (260,000 metric tons) compared to 2017. According to the 2017 emissions standard as the denominator, the self-reduction ratio of air conditioners, home appliances, and lighting is 3% (200,000 metric tons) and 5% (620,000 metric tons), respectively. % (370,000 metric tons).

4.Recommendation

a)Research on carbon reduction incentive adjustment measures in the residential sector.

b)Promote energy-efficient appliances and related energy-saving incentives.