Abstract
”Taiwan Real Estate Cycle Indicators Quarterly Report “published
by Architecture and Building Research institute, Ministry of The Interior
(ABRI) has already developed long-term and public trusting real estate
cycle information. With the changes of economical structure in recent
years, it is necessary to re-exam the adequacy of the original analysis
model and research approach. This study employs methods of literature
review, secondary information analysis, and expert consultation.
Subjects for research and findings are described as follows: Comparing
the mechanism and method of revealing cycle indicators relevant
information by other governmental departments in Taiwan, the real
estate cycle indicators published by ABRI is a comprehensive indicator,
which cannot present the secondary market information of an area.
Besides, the true market information is difficult to obtain and it is hard
to present current market situation.
In discussion of analysis model, the estimation results showed that
real estate leading indicator did affect real estate synchronous indicator.
Real estate leading indicator can be used to predict real estate
synchronous indicator for about two quarters. It shows that the leading
period is not long enough to warn the public early when the market
suddenly changes.
Secondly, the basis cycle and the check value interval have not
revised in accordance with the influence of social and economical
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XVI
changes for a long time. Thus, the explanation ability of the cycle
indicators needs to be improved. The sampling size of surveys
conducted by private companies was too small to demonstrate
representativeness over the years. Moreover, the parameters of the
analysis model were unable to process regional data so that the model
cannot reflect the market conditions of different areas. Also, long-term
and steady information about real estate trading value and amount was
lacked. The issues above are originates with restrictions of information
character.
As information utilization and demand was concerned, the study
results showed that there was no similar information that can be
compared objectively in Taiwan. The monitoring indicators were
subjected to provide the basis for making policies. However, there was
no policy making institute or department totally correspond to real estate
information that the early warning function cannot work successfully.
The composite indicator provided mostly the comprehensive data, which
was not made for the public or single industry's to consult. As a result,
the total benefit was limited.
The information was sent primarily by industry associations or
academic research institutions and seldom by governmental department
in other countries. The analysis emphasized on existing real estate
indicators and does not focus on predicting tendency, so as to ensure not
to excessively intervene market. Review the cycles over the years since
first announced real estate cycle indicators in Taiwan by ABRI, the
indicator was yellow-blue light (score 10) that represented slightly slow
business at the first quarter in 1999 and turned upwards thereafter. The
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indicator was green light (score 14) that represented steady business at
the first quarter in 2004 and turned downwards thereafter. The
indicator was blue light (score 6) that represented slow business at the
first quarter in 2009 and turned upwards gradually thereafter. The
indicator was green light (score 14) again at the second quarter in 2010.
The real estate cycle indicators were able to perform indication and
warning functions during that time and built market mechanism naturally.
It showed that the mission of ABRI as conducting real estate cycle
indicators was achieved.
Concluded from the analysis above, the suggestions are proposed as
follows:
Suggestion 1
Adjust Publication method of real estate cycle indicator score and
light: A short-tern suggestion
Responsible Organization: Architecture and Building Research
institute, Ministry of The Interior
Current real estate cycle indicators, both score and light, leading
indicator and simultaneous indicator are all comprehensive analyses
indicators that were difficult to present the secondary market information
an area. In order to avoid misleading the public to apply indicators in
whole area without exception, the comprehensive indicator should not be
announced temporarily. Current analysis results can be referenced
within governmental departments instead of releasing in press
conferences.
房地產景氣分析與發布方式之回顧與檢討研究
XVII I
Suggestion 2
Re-exam the real estate cycle indicator analysis model and build a
periodical review mechanism: A Mid-tern or long-term suggestion
Responsible Organization: Architecture and Building Research
institute, Ministry of The Interior
The explanation ability for the real estate cycle indicator of the
current analysis model still needs to be improved. With the limitation
of short leading indicator prediction periods, lack of representativeness
of surveys conducted by private companies, and restrictions of
information character, several model adjustments should be made. The
parameters should be screened immediately, and the cycle fluctuating
trend should be redefined. Also, the model should be revised and
periodically reviewed due to market structure changes under social and
economical changes.
Suggestion 3
The real estate cycle indicator quarterly report should be edited and
published by governmental department that responsible for housing
policy: A short-tern suggestion
Responsible Organization: Construction and Planning Agency,
Ministry of The Interior
Assistant Organization: Architecture and Building Research institute,
Ministry of The Interior
Based on Executive Yuan, November 21 2007, Tai Jian Zi No.
0960050731 Letter, this case was integrated into Total Housing Policy
Objective 1: Healthy Housing Market, Strategy 3: Enhancement of
摘 要
XIX
Housing Market Supply and Demand Guide and Total Amount Control
Plan since 2008 held by ABRI. However, based on the responsibilities
integration principle for residential building information, the real estate
cycle indicator quarterly report should be edited and published by
housing affairs responsible governmental department - Construction and
Planning Agency, Ministry of The Interior.